Meeting the new Government’s housing targets (Part 1)

10.14.2024

The Scale of the Challenge – How much development is required?

Written by HTVF board member, Alan Thompson

The above diagram illustrates the hierarchy of UK settlements, drawn to scale, by population (not formal status or charter), using data from 2018. [1]

The Government has announced a target to deliver 1.5m new homes over the next five years. This represents roughly a 4.9% increase in the UK housing stock. [2]

To illustrate the magnitude and implications of this increase, we have made some rough calculations for three hypothetical scenarios. These scenarios assume every part of the settlement hierarchy (illustrated above) successfully builds-out their own share of the 4.9% target, pro-rata, according to population. [3]

  • Scenario 1 – All settlements expand their existing building stock by 9%
  • Scenario 2 – The target is achieved purely by building additional new settlements
  • Scenario 3 – A 50:50 hybrid version of the above two scenarios

 

Scenario 1: Every Settlement grows its own housing stock by 4.9%

 

Scenario 2: 4.9% increase in housing stock, purely through providing new settlements

 

Scenario 3: 4.9% increase through 50:50 split of organic expansion and new settlement

 

Pros and Cons of each scenario

Scenario 1

  • Pros
  • The new housing could share the valuable infrastructure, natural and built assets of the existing community
  • The existing community will benefit from increased population: patronage of shops and businesses etc.
  • There will be gradual organic growth, rather than wholesale change
  • Cons
  • The construction process will disrupt the existing community
  • The increased population might be a burden on existing services
  • The prized “edge of town” disrupted (views / access to open countryside and walking distance to urban centre)
  • The infill construction would be more expensive to deliver

Scenario 2

  • Pros
  • Development not constrained by existing infrastructure or townscape context
  • Opportunity for more radical architectural solutions and new ways of living
  • Less need to negotiate with existing vested interests
  • The construction process will not be disruptive to an established community
  • Cheaper to deliver
  • Cons
  • The new settlement would require its own totally new infrastructure
  • No sense of continuity with an existing settlement
  • Harder to establish a sense of place and belonging

Scenario 3

In Scenario 3, some situations will have the profile of Scenario 1, others will have the profile of Scenario 2.

  • Perhaps it makes sense to have a mix of organic growth of existing settlements alongside some new settlements?
  • Perhaps some people prefer the Scenario1 outcomes, while others would be happier with Scenario 2?
  • Is 50:50 the correct ratio? Why not 60:40 or 40:60? Or 20:80?
  • Perhaps the answer depends on the preferences of the local community?

 

[1] Diagram © 2024 AP Thompson Built Environment Consultancy. Source: 2018 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/trends-and-inequalities-in-cities-towns-and-villages

[2] This is assuming there are ~30.6 million homes in the UK at 31 March 2024 (based on current total housing stock at 31 March 2022 plus ONS figures [when there was an average of 2.36 people per household] for new dwellings in 2022-2023 & 2023-2024). Sources:

[3] Clearly, it would make sense to build where there is the most need, rather than a flat pro-rata delivery everywhere. A more nuanced approach would result in some settlements expanding more than others; and potentially, some not expanding at all. To keep it simple, calculations ignore current commitments.